The Divagator’s 2008 six pack

Here follows The Divagator’s top six posts in 2008 as measured by readership.

1. “The next bubble” (March 2, 2008)
How embarrassing it would have been to have gotten this one wrong, given the heavy readership this enjoyed. But as luck would have it, my call to cash out of commodity stocks back in March was spectacularly right. Commodities – and by extension, commodity stocks – posted their worst declines in a calendar year ever, and the five stocks I identified as short opportunities – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., Barrick Gold Corporation, Goldcorp Inc., BHP Billiton, and Arch Coal – would have netted investors 45% gains if you had shorted on March 3. By the way, consider this basket now closed. Commodity stocks will likely rise or trade even in 2009.


2. “What was on Raúl Reyes’ computer” (March 10, 2008)
This post discussed the implications of the Colombian military’s successful raid of a FARC rebel base in Ecuador, whereby it killed the rebels’ number-two in command, Raúl Reyes, and confiscated sensitive materials on a laptop computer. The performance of Colombia’s military in beating back the leftist rebels over the past couple of years, helped in part through generous aid from Washington, is one of the few foreign-policy successes of the Bush administration.

3. “MS Acquisition 1.0” (February 11, 2008)
This was a short analysis of Microsoft’s announced bid for Yahoo! Inc., which later failed amid Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang’s foot-dragging. My feeling at the time was that Yahoo! was foolish for turning down Microsoft’s $31-per-share offer ($44 billion in total). Yahoo!’s market capitalization today is but $19 billion; its stock closed 2008 out trading at $12.20 per share. The New York Times’ Miguel Helft captured the mood over at Yahoo with today’s article, “A Tough Year for Yahoo,” writing:

“It’s no secret that this has been a tough year for Yahoo. For investors, the company’s two major setbacks were the failed merger negotiations with Microsoft and the failed advertising partnership with Google, which disintegrated in the face of opposition from advertisers and the Justice Department. For many employees, much of the pain came from two rounds of layoffs, seemingly endless rounds of reorganizations and a sense that they were riding on a rudderless ship.”

4. “The case of Pete Peterson” (February 15, 2008)
This post was in response to an excellent New York Times profile on Mr. Peterson, the former Nixon administration cabinet member, private equity baron, and one my favorite people generally.

5. “Ruthenia: the next South Ossetia?” (December 23, 2008)
I only posted this a week ago and have been a little surprised at the volume of readership. In it, I examine some of the implications behind a small secessionist movement of Ruthenians in western Ukraine, especially as it relates to Russia-Ukraine relations and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. Given Russian aggression this past summer in Georgia, this little remarked upon event seemed worthy of a divagation or two.

6. “2008 Asshat of the Year” (February 17, 2008)
This post recognized SLM Corporation CEO Albert L. Lord with The Divagator’s second-annual Asshat of the Year Award. Congratulations, Albert!

How has old Albert’s company fared since he picked up the dubious distinction? SLM shares fell over 50% to close the year trading at $8.90. Granted, the originator of student loans saw its business hurt far more by the credit crunch than by Mr. Lord’s decision-making at the top; still, shareholders are paying Lord a lot of coin, despite his pay cut back in February.

Stay tuned this coming month for The Divagator’s third-annual Asshat of the Year. Given that 2008 was the stock market’s worst year since 1931, it might be more difficult than you would think choosing just one lucky chap to wear this year’s asshat.