2008 US Senate elections: midsummer report

It took nearly 50 years for changing political winds and corruption to loosen the Democrats’ grip on Congress; Republicans managed only a decade in power before ceding control back to the Democrats, who are clearly ascendant during this current election cycle. The question for the house during this 2008 senatorial election cycle is not whether the Dems will retain control of the US Senate (they will), but rather how much of an advantage will they come away with?

There are several factors at play in 2008 that will affect all US Senate races. First and foremost is the national momentum built up by the Democratic party. The 2006 mid-term elections demonstrated that a decided political shift away from southern-fried conservatism is occurring, although it might have been mistaken at the time for the typical pattern of voting against the sitting president’s party. This momentum has been strengthened by the emergence of Barack Obama as the Democratic challenger for president. Obama will undoubtedly bring out a new crowd to the polls in 2008, and while it is not assured he will win the presidential election, his presence on the ballot could alter long-standing voting patterns in local elections, as newly-energized black and youth voters turn out in record numbers. This can only add to the momentum Democrats already enjoy.

This momentum coincides with a listlessness in Republicans not seen since the post-Watergate years. The Republican party is paying the price for fouling up its brief leadership role in national politics and has alienated nearly every key constituency over the past decade: social conservatives are perpetually disenchanted; law-and-order conservatives are upset over moderate Republicans’ attempts to ram through an immigration amnesty law; national defense conservatives are dismayed with the conduct of our twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; fiscal conservatives, like the Divagator himself, are horrified by the runaway budget deficits and government’s alacrity for meddling in the financial markets; and conservatives of all stripes are aghast at the sheer level of corruption and incompetence evidenced by Republican lawmakers. Add to the mix a presidential candidate in John McCain who does not particularly excite the base, and prospects for 2008 – across the board – do not look good for Republicans, particularly with the sitting Republican president’s approval ratings competing with those of Richard Nixon for an all-time low.

But it gets worse. This year’s election represents the largest party spread – that is, the number of contested seats among the parties – in a US Senate electoral cycle for several generations. Twenty-three Republican Senate seats must be fought for – only 12 Democratic seats are up for grabs. Then consider that, nationwide, the Democrats enjoy a significant campaign-financing advantage, and you have the making of a perfect electoral storm. Of the ten races considered most competitive, only one involves a Senate seat currently occupied by the Democrats (Mary Landrieu of Louisiana).

Over the next few weeks, The Divagator will preview each of these ten races, listed below, and examine the electoral prospects of the candidates.