Off come the gloves

In my essay of June 13 on the Palestinian situation, I referred to the widening split between Hamas and Fatah and its implications on further Israel-Palestine negotiations. With yesterday’s raid inside of pre-1967 Israel, which resulted in two Israeli soliders’ deaths and the kidnapping of another, Hamas is fulfilling its pledge to poison the well such that negotiations cannot continue. Although I didn’t put much faith in the idea, some commentators have noted that aggressive Hamas action against Israel could result in splitting Hamas, pitting unreconstructed radicals against the more moderate voices within the party, but this split is also occurring in a less obvious way. Strategic Forecasting reported this morning that “while the distinction between the political and militant factions of Hamas is not necessarily clear, the differences between Hamas’ local and exiled leaders seem to be growing increasingly obvious,” meaning that those Hamas leaders not living in the territories are maintaining a harder-line stance than those in government. After all, it’s a lot safer to be a militant from Damascus than from Gaza.

While Israel has mobilized tanks and troops for a response, it has chosen to wait and see if the Palestinians will return the kidnapped corporal. It will be tempting to interpret the soldier’s fate as a scorecard of sorts in understanding which faction within Hamas has the upper hand, but it is no longer clear that Hamas’ long-admired discipline is still intact. In other words, the Hamas government may no longer have control of the Hamas militias, which is a recipe for disaster for all Palestinians.