Stratfor published last week its “Decade Forecast: 2010-2020,” a collection of regional forecasts that present one big thought: the demographic pattern of the previous half-millennium – that of expanding populations leading to greater labor, production, and economic growth – will begin reversing itself, both in developed and (some) emerging economies. I don’t want to pick at the premise overmuch. Stratfor presents the idea more as a provocation and less as a scholarly thesis.
As far as it goes, it is interesting to consider that the Turkish population in, say, Germany, is set to increase faster than that in Turkey itself. But such notions aside, the aging of what I would call middle-income countries – such as Turkey or Mexico – is likely to have knock-on effects for rich countries, too, since the rich economies depend greatly on cheap labor supplied by the middle-income countries, either migrant labor or home labor employed as part of a global supply chain. If this forecast holds true, it is definitely something to consider over the next decade.
The financial problems associated with demographic decline in rich countries are well known and have been greatly discussed. Obviously, the social safety net – from pensions to health care – in places like Europe will be altered in significant ways in the near future. For countries that wish to maintain the status quo in these areas, it makes immigration a structural economic necessity, something that current citizens of aging states might not fully appreciate. More likely, as Stratfor notes, the current social safety-net regime will change. Retirement ages will be raised; benefits lowered. These decisions will not come without significant political stress and struggle, especially given the cultural problems associated with immigrants, particularly in Europe.
On a related note, I have just ordered Cas Mudde’s Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe, an investigation of the rise of right-wing political parties in Europe. The arrival of large numbers of Muslim immigrants from North Africa and Turkey is surely one cause for the spike in right-wing parties, and I look forward to reading the book in this regard. In its forecast for Europe, Stratfor touched on this dynamic, remarking:
“A deep tension will emerge in Europe between the elite — who will see foreign pools of labor in terms of the value they bring to the economy, and whose daily contact with the immigrants will be minimal — and the broader population. The general citizenry will experience the cultural tensions with the immigrants and see the large pool of labor flowing into the country suppressing wages. This dynamic will be particularly sharp in the core states of France, Germany and Italy.”
In any event, as suggested above, the stage is set in Europe and elsewhere for a collision of two perspectives – preservation of the social safety net versus tolerance for high levels of immigration. Much of the internal politics of rich countries will be consumed with this debate in the next decade and beyond, so in this, I agree with Stratfor’s forecast. After all, the recent race riots in southern Italy illustrate somewhat the tensions associated with the current dynamic in place.
While we’re on the demographic issue, I should rectify one glaring omission in the Stratfor forecast regarding population growth rates lest folks begin to think the planet’s population is shrinking. While it is true that the population of some middle-income countries is aging, we should remember that, overall, the planet’s population continues to bulge, powered largely by Africa and Asia. For example, according to Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit organization that focuses on population data, the population of Uganda is set to triple to 96 million between now and 2050.
As we proceed further into the new century, it is these places – sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, particularly – that will be best able to provide labor the rich and middle-income countries need, should they want it.
Stratfor likely ignored Africa in its forecast because the region is such a non-entity in geopolitical terms, but we should remember that, along with Asia, Africa accounts for eight in ten of the planet’s youth. That’s a staggering number and will surely have some impact on geopolitics, even when one figures in the low life expectancies and extreme impoverishment of these nations. If nothing else, it gives pause to consider how easily such folks can become radicalized in the name of religion, Muslim or Christian. Witness the harrowing accounts of the Lord’s Resistance Army that operates in Uganda, and of course, we are already acquainted with the actions of a Nigerian national aboard a commercial jet around Christmastime. In the next ten years and beyond, I would expect to see Africa’s profile raised, often in a negative light, such that the plight of Africans will be hard to ignore, and yet, as before, it will be very difficult to effect change there, likely consigning us to a feeling of helplessness and frustration.
Otherwise, I would quibble here or there with Stratfor’s regional forecasts, but overall, I think the document provides a fine starting point for thinking about how long-term geopolitical trends will spill over into day-to-day events and encourage you to check it out.
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