New decade forecast published

I got an email this morning from Stratfor, a strategic and business forecasting company, touting the publication of its “Decade Forecast: 2010-2020.” I generally pay little attention to such forecasts, though I realize the necessity of creating such a framework for an intelligence-gathering operation. I find that decade forecasts are generally too narrow to capture truly innovative big-picture thinking, and yet too broad to be of immediate use in day-to-day decision making. Having said that, there have been notions in prior Stratfor forecasts that were, in hindsight, pretty prescient, and I’m sure the new report will have some equally thought-provoking things to say.

Of note, I was surprised to discover, in reviewing Stratfor’s 2000 forecast, the emphasis the organization placed on what it called “economic de-synchronization.” It forecasted that this, along with coordinated attempts worldwide to resist American hegemony, would characterize the first decade of the 21st century. In this, Stratfor couldn’t have been more correct. In retrospect, this de-synchronization was a very important force in the Noughties, explaining both the failure of the Doha round of trade talks as well as the rise of economic nationalism and neo-mercantilism.

It took a lot of courage in 2000 to publish such a thing, being as we were in the height of the dot-com boom and a rapidly globalizing economy.

So when the new forecast makes a claim that seems slightly outrageous – such as “the next 10 years will mark the beginning of a massive reversal in the dominant trends of the past 500 years” – we should probably stop guffawing long enough to hear them out.

When I finish the reading through the forecast, I’ll circle back and post some thoughts, but I encourage everyone to check it out (you’ll need to enter your email to receive a free copy).