Election eve eve

Okay, okay, back during the summer I promised a preview of important US Senate election contests, and of course, have reneged on doing that. As the GOP’s situation deteriorated, particularly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, it seemed a less interesting task. So let’s do the new short math instead.

Currently, the US Senate is split between the two major parties 49 to 49, with two independents who caucus with the Democrats, giving them effective control of the chamber. This year, the Republicans must defend 23 seats, the Democrats only 12. Given the momentum – and the largest spread between Dems and Reps in a generation in terms of seats that must be defended – it is a certainty that the Democrats will own a significant advantage come 2009 in the US Senate. But how big?

I honestly don’t have a very good idea, but I think – at a bare minimum – the Democrats will control 56 seats. That number could get as high as 59. Not exactly a crystal ball, but there you have it.

And, oh by the way, Obama wins with greater than 50% the vote…but you already knew that.