Russia broadens the conflict with Georgia

The Financial Times reported today that Russia has opened a second front in its undeclared war with Georgia, pouring troops and materiel into Abkhazia, a second breakaway region within Georgia. The same news story recounts multiple airstrikes deep into Georgia proper.

The decision to broaden the campaign erodes Russia’s diplomatic standing in the region and with the West, as its implicit casus belli was to “protect Russian citizens living in South Ossetia.” Opening the second front in Abkhazia has little to no strategic bearing on the status of “Russian citizens” in South Ossetia. In a report filed today, The Guardian’s Helen Womack argues that “If Russia is serious about its peacekeeping role in the region, it will do no more than push Georgian forces out of South Ossetia and attempt to return to the status quo before fighting broke out last week.” This seems a distant possibility now. The opening of the second front and the air raids in Georgia proper have destroyed the Russian pretense of keeping the peace and protecting the Ossetians and will have a severe impact on US-Russian relations.

Already, repercussions of this decision are evident, even from non-Western actors. Ukraine announced today that “it could bar Russian navy ships from returning to their base in the Crimea,” according to the Associated Press, whose report quoted the Ukrainians as asserting that “Ukraine reserves the right to bar ships which may take part in these actions from returning to the Ukrainian territory until the conflict is solved.”

The Russians reacted to this statement with predictable bellicosity. According to a Reuters report, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated on its website, “The Ukrainian government, which has been enthusiastically arming Georgian troops from top to bottom, was in fact encouraging Georgia to attack and carry out ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia.” Of course, the Ukrainians can barely arm themselves, much less cause too much trouble abroad. The Russian response betrays itself and the country’s motives – if ethnic cleansing, properly and precisely defined, were being carried out, one would need only to demonstrate that fact to the world via journalism. Cameras and journalists have been conspicuously absent from South Ossetia.

In yesterday’s post, I was willing to give the South Ossetians a fair hearing. They have real, substantial, and historical grievances against Georgia; however, by virtue of their disproportionate use of military force, the Russians are quickly shifting world attention away from these grievances, and it is reasonable to assume that the Russians are now motivated more by revenge and anger than “keeping the peace” in South Ossetia. The cause in South Ossetia may well be just, but the Russian response has not been measured or responsible.

The Russians may gain South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but they will lose much more than that by opening this second front. For years, countries in the region have attempted to focus world attention on Russian bullying and interventionism. There have been bouts of civil unrest in foreign capitals organized by the Kremlin; cyber-attacks on foreign digital infrastructure; alleged poisoning of foreign political candidates averse to Russian interests; and the use of energy supplies as a political lever to influence foreign governments. If anything, the Russians are on a course that would confirm to a worldwide audience that it is not a responsible partner and neighbor.