What happened to John McCain?

The incredible shrinking campaign that is John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid has baffled commentators for a few months now, elevating Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani to the status of Republican frontrunner. McCain, easily the most visible and known quantity in the Republican field, has been reeling of late, highlighted by a complete reshuffling of his campaign team and a wicked inability to raise money. So how is it that the pre-season favorite in the Republican primary could go from penthouse to outhouse so quickly?

The answer, of course, is that this recent slide is not so recent, but rather the result of a somewhat residual set of circumstances; in effect, McCain’s troubles are not of the overnight variety, but have plagued his political career for some time. [Disclaimer: The Divagator contributed to and voted for John McCain during the 2000 Republican primary election cycle.] Primarily, McCain has never truly kissed and made up with the Republican establishment that derailed his 2000 campaign. He may have thought he had the support of the party apparatus, but clearly, this is not so. The reasons for this are manifold.

Foremost, McCain’s so-called maverick streak frightens conservatives, particularly those conservatives who are ascendant in Republican politics. Of course, from one perspective, McCain has more in common with, say, Barry Goldwater, than George W. Bush, and this comparison should indicate that it is the Republican Party itself that has changed over the years, certainly more so than Mr. McCain has. McCain, at least in terms of rhetoric, will still stump for fiscal responsibility, electoral rectitude, (certain) libertarian principles, and smaller government. These things used to constitute the main course of the Republican banquet, but in 2007, it is clear that the Republican Party, after several years of Congressional and executive control of the federal government, has shifted its attention to other policies and other principles. Claims to fiscal responsibility are expressly false; claims to reform the voting system remain back-burnered; and of course, the federal government under Republican control grew in size and power, so any claims to “less government” are a charade. Perhaps Mr. McCain scares Republicans because he reminds them of what they used to be.

More immediately, however, there were two recent policy decisions undertaken by the McCain camp that have been utterly disastrous. First, Mr. McCain’s unequivocal support for the White House’s winter surge in Iraq has been a net loss for the campaign. This policy position aligned McCain with the single-most visible and costly example of the current administration’s incompetence. He basically forfeited the support of those who were most apt to give it, namely, the moderates of both parties, and in return, he received nothing. For the reasons touched on above, Mr. McCain will never be the candidate of choice for the far-right of the Republican Party, and the only group who approved of McCain’s war stance was the far right and a few true believers sprinkled about the electorate.

The other issue that has proved to be a debacle is immigration. Mr. McCain provided vocal, staunch support to the White House’s late attempt to pass immigration legislation. The legislation failed because, contrary to middle-of-the-road sentiment, there simply was not enough support for it on the left or the right. To these folks, the immigration bill held very little that squared with their self-interest, and make no mistake, as pieces of legislation go, it was quite bad. At the end of the day, many folks felt—myself included—that doing nothing was wiser than eating this tube of sausage posing as federal law.

For arch-conservatives, Mr. McCain’s position vis-à-vis immigration confirmed their worst fears, and as poll after poll has shown, few issues mobilize right-wing voters as much as immigration. So, in effect, Mr. McCain has alienated both the center and the right and now has no natural coalition of supporters. This translates into no money, which translates into no campaign.