Tuesday, January 09, 2007

How you like them Apples?

Once merely Bill Gates’ diminutive adversary, then Michael Dell’s, Apple Computer—er, um, make that Apple, Inc.—has become a giant-sized pain in the ass to a full range of industries and companies, including computer and software makers, makers of computer peripherals, music companies, retailers, and, now, cell phone manufacturers.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs today announced at MacWorld Expo in San Francisco the introduction of the iPhone, Apple’s first foray into the cell phone/PDA market, and if that wasn’t quite enough, Jobs also declared that the company will be changing its name as well, reflected above, to just Apple, Inc., in order to underscore what most folks have already grasped: that Apple is no longer just a quiet, quirky maker of high-end computers that run on proprietary software, but instead is building momentum toward becoming a full-fledged maker of consumer electronics.

It wasn’t long ago that Jobs circulated his infamous email around Apple HQ taking savage delight in Apple’s market capitalization exceeding that of Dell Inc., which marked, at least so many thought, the high point in Apple’s re-emergence. Of course, the comparison now between the two companies seems, well, Apples to oranges on many fronts. Today’s eight-percent surge in Apple’s share price has lifted the company’s market cap to nearly $90 billion (Dell’s, by comparison, is around $60 billion). Even the former heavyweight champion of consumer electronics, Sony, can’t compare in this regard, as its market cap has slipped to $46 billion amid continued woes, and it seems clear that Apple is now the company Sony used to be; it is the company that has everyone oohing and aahing over its new wares, while it seems that, minus the Playstation franchise, Sony is just another manufacturer.

Hype aside, the introduction of the iPhone will have quite an impact upon the makers of cell-phone handsets, beyond the bout of overexcitement from today’s stock market which saw many leading manufacturers of handsets post substantial losses as Apple soared. For example, as the Associated Press’ technology writer Rachel Konrad reported, “Treo-maker Palm dropped 5.7 percent, BlackBerry’s Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) lost 7.9 percent and Motorola Inc. shed 1.8 percent.”

Despite the more modest loss when compared to Palm and RIM, Motorola may have the most to lose with Apple’s move into handset-making. Already reeling from last week’s profit warning—which resulted in nearly 8% being shaved from its stock in Friday’s trading—Motorola has made what some analysts believe is a strategic gaffe regarding its super-successful RAZR phone. This past weekend, the Wall Street Journal’s Sara Silver, Cassell Bryan-Low, and Amol Sharma published a long, detailed look at what might have caused the dip in profits, concluding

But Motorola appears to have failed to turn the blockbuster into high profit margins. One key reason, some investors and analysts say: The Schaumburg, Ill., telecommunications-equipment maker used the popularity of its RAZR to take market share, allowing the handset’s price to drop quickly in a quest to become the world’s leading handset maker. The strategy knocked the wind out of small rivals, which struggled to close Motorola’s design and engineering lead. But many have caught up, producing cheap yet elegant phones—some even slimmer than Motorola’s.

Country music’s Jerry Reed once had a goofy novelty song that claimed “When You’re Hot, You’re Hot,” and while he might not have had Apple in mind when he wrote it, it could just as well apply, for Apple has picked a most opportune time to introduce its phone. As the above WSJ excerpt explains, Motorola’s RAZR phone is no longer the juggernaut it was among high-end consumers of handsets; once seen as a must-have fashion accessory for the rich and famous, now the RAZR—thanks in part to CEO Ed Zander’s strategy—is now just another nice handset among many, and no Motorola model has really taken up the slack at the high end of the market. Enter the iPhone, with all of Apple’s exquisite marketing sense and design prowess behind it. Priced at $499, the iPhone almost seems destined to become the new It Accessory in handsets, particularly among non-business users who might not care about getting tied up with Apple’s OS-X operating system or its exclusive operation on the Cingular network. At least initially, the iPhone’s most likely target market will be up-market consumers who already own the company’s computers and/or who use its digital-music platform, the iPod. Indeed, in many respects, the introduction of the iPhone could be interpreted as an attempt to build a moat around its dominant, but eroding, lead in digital music since there has been a steady convergence between digital-music players and cell-phone handsets.

But longer term, companies like Palm and RIM might have as much to fear from Apple’s entry into handset-making. At least, Palm founder Jeffrey Hawkins apparently believes so, as today, he dumped 22,000 shares of his own company’s stock. It was a so-called pre-arranged trading plan according to the related filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but don’t think that Mr. Hawkins wasn’t aware that MacWorld was scheduled for this week, and given the buzz of late in tech circles that Apple was soon to enter handset-making, I’m sure Mr. Hawkins’ auspiciously dated trade—which brought in proceeds of over 9% the current stock price—was much more than happenstance.

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