2006 US Senate elections: election eve report

Republicans across the country are bracing themselves for an electoral massacre tomorrow in the nationwide mid-terms. The past 12 to 18 months have seen a series of policy debacles and sleazy headlines at the federal level of government, and common sense would dictate that the sitting party will pay for them. As a matter of course, all mid-term elections visit some degree of hostility upon the president’s party and/or incumbent congressmen, and this election will likely be no different.

Still, it is wise to bear in mind the old saw about all politics being local. When the federal government’s policy engine begins to malfunction, there is a great deal of anger among the voters, but often, voters are less apt to blame their representative or senator for the troubles; therefore, each race must be viewed within the context of local politics, which is not to say that general trends across races aren’t perceptible, but that politicians with strong local support can often overcome the handicaps placed on them by the prevailing national political winds.

A few months back, I took a look at some of the US senate races that were determined to be competitive at the time. Of the 33 races, only 14 made the cut. Since then, one race in particular must be added to the list, as incumbent George Allen (R-VA) has virtually self-destructed in his attempt at re-election. Also, one race should be taken off of the competitive list from this summer, as incumbent Rick Santorum (R-PA) is running far, far behind Democratic challenger Bob Casey.

Another race I omitted to highlight in my midsummer essay was the strange events surrounding the Connecticut Democratic primary, although I addressed them here and here. One should add this election to the ranks of the competitive, although the Republican candidate in the race is little more than an afterthought.

My midsummer post projected that the Republicans’ advantage in the Senate would fall from 55-44-1 to 52-47-1 after the election. The picture now looks bleaker for the Republicans. Here’s a brief update of the competitive races.

Current alignment of US Senate:
55 Republicans; 44 Democrats; 1 Independent.
Projected alignment post-election:
51 Republicans; 47 Democrats; 2 Independents.

ARIZONA

I had projected incumbent Republican John Kyl to win a tighter-than-expected election. His poll numbers have remained steady, and I have no reason to believe that Kyl won’t win re-election. In fact, he may come in a few percentage points higher, pulling away from the challenger decisively. This one will be called fairly early. Projection: Republicans keep the seat.

CONNECTICUT

The independent campaign of Joe Lieberman has definitely taken advantage of the electoral arithmetic I alluded to in an earlier essay. Democratic hopeful Ned Lamont’s victory in the primary—garnering just under 150,000 votes—simply is not indicative of the kind of support needed to win a state-wide open election in Connecticut. Lieberman has done an excellent job convincing the state’s moderates and conservatives that he deserves another term in Washington. Projection: Seat goes independent.

MARYLAND

Even before the Democrats had settled upon Ben Cardin as their candidate, I had projected that they would retain control of retiring senator Paul Sarbanes seat. Nothing much has changed. Republican challenger Michael Steele—an affable black man who has shown greater-than-anticipated campaigning skills—simply has too much to overcome in this very Democratic state. Projection: Democrats keep the seat.

MICHIGAN

I called this one for the Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, almost by default. The Republicans simply have not put up a credible challenger. Lack of Republican money and ideas have pretty much sealed this one up for Stabenow. Projection: Democrats keep the seat.

MINNESOTA

Due to Minnesota’s long-time affection for Democratic senators, I projected Amy Klobuchar as the winner of retiring senator Tim Dayton’s seat. That sense has only grown since the summertime, as Republican Mark Kennedy has not been able to dent her poll lead. This is a case where the local candidate needed some help from the national party, but amid so much scandal and incompetence, the party affiliation only hurt Kennedy in the long run. Projection: Democrats keep the seat.

MISSOURI

This is one of the more interesting Senate races, as incumbent Jim Talent attempts to hold off Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill. All things being equal, Talent would retain his seat, but this year, all things are not equal. The problems at the national level of the Republican party are taking steam out of Talent’s campaign, and McCaskill, from what I can tell, has run a picture-perfect campaign. She has learned a great deal from her gubernatorial election defeat a few years back and has pitched herself a little right of center, just where the average Missourian lives. I’ll stick with my earlier projection. Projection: Democrats take the seat.

MONTANA

I had claimed this summer that Conrad Burns was the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the Senate (at least, this side of Rick Santorum), and challenger Jon Tester remains in front based on recent polls, although Burns has edged closer of late. Because of money and name recognition, you can’t rule out an election-day comeback for Burns, but the safe bet is that Tester will finish where he started…in the lead. Projection: Democrats take the seat.

NEBRASKA

There hasn’t been a lot of movement here, and I expect Ben Nelson to win convincingly over the Republican challenger Pete Ricketts. Projection: Democrats keep the seat.

NEW JERSEY

This election is the only competitive Senate race trending away from an incumbent Democrat. Republican challenger Tom Kean, Jr. has run a brilliant campaign. I asserted this summer, as the Kean campaign was gaining strength, that Menendez needed to weather the storm and stay within the polls’ margin for error; he has managed to do that, and is poised to win a toss-up election in a state dominated by the Democrats. But I have a gut feeling that Kean will win; the guy is a natural politician, but more important, his campaign has demonstrated that the affluent, moderate suburbs of New Jersey have definitely drifted quite far from the Democratic camp. Kean is the guy walking and talking like a moderate independent, while Menendez has all the energy and charm of a machine politician. I have changed my projection here. Projection: Republicans take the seat.

OHIO

Back during the summer, this looked like an eminently winnable race for the Republicans, but in-fighting among the state-level GOP has handed this senate seat to the Democrats. Many Ohioan Republicans never much liked incumbent senator Mike DeWine, perceiving him to be too moderate, and their lukewarm support is killing DeWine’s chances at re-election. This predicament is probably a foreshadowing of the 2008 election cycle for the Republicans, as party hard-liners and moderates will fight one another for the presidential ticket. The early results of this conflict will cost them a seat in the Senate. Projection: Democrats take the seat.

RHODE ISLAND

I badly underestimated the strength of the Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse during the summer, or perhaps overestimated incumbent Lincoln Chafee’s strength. In either case, this election is much, much closer than I anticipated, as the two candidates are running virtually neck and neck. Broadly speaking, Chafee is well-liked in Rhode Island, and I still feel he will win, although Rhode Island could become the Ohio of 2006. The election will oh-so-close and will likely only be settled amid calls for recounts and threats of litigation. Projection: Republicans keep the seat.

TENNESSEE

The two candidates vying for the seat of the retiring Bill Frist are locked in a vitriolic campaign, replete with attack ads and aggressive campaign tactics. Simply put, this is one of the ugliest campaigns of the cycle. Despite some early campaign-finance mismanagement, Democratic challenger Harold Ford has run much stronger than I anticipated. Tennessee has become so reliably conservative, though, I don’t feel the federal-level problems of the Republican party present Bob Corker with enough of a disadvantage to lose the election. Projection: Republicans keep the seat.

VIRGINIA

As I mentioned above, I did not count this race as competitive during the summer, but Republican incumbent George Allen has found a way to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. Part of Allen’s problem may be his reported desire to run for President in 2008. One really should take these things one election at a time, but in attempting to position himself for a 2008 Presidential run, Allen has not been smart or focused in his approach to the Virginia Senate election. I think he loses in an upset. Projection: Democrats take the seat.

WASHINGTON

This was a potential trouble spot for the Democrats during the summer, as the state-level party hacks were relentless in their attacks on incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell, due to her outspoken support for the military presence in Iraq. Since the summer, the Democrats have toned down their rhetoric, allowing Cantwell to establish a large lead over the Republican challenger. She should sail through on election day. Projection: Democrats keep the seat.